“The US position as the world’s most indebted nation makes it vulnerable to stock market collapse, currency runs and economic crisis, as well as global currency manipulation.”
“A major pandemic may be the instrument that causes a reverse in the process of globalization as national responses to contain infection will involve significant restrictions on personal mobility and interaction over a lengthy period. Some states may even be destabilized by the effort and resources required to address the situation”
“The declining size of working populations and rising social, health and pension costs in developed countries, financed through taxation, will increase the financial burden on the younger elements of society. Further exacerbation by unaffordable house prices, student debt and unemployment, contrasted with the wealth locked up in older generations, may lead to protests on a wide scale, resulting in instability and social unrest.”
“A large city in a developing region (or a number of large cities in more than one region) may fail before 2035. The effects will be equivalent in character, if not in scale, to state failure, which city failure may, in turn, precipitate.”
“It is likely that unregulated urbanization will result in future adversaries who have highly-developed urban survival and combat skills. They may consequently choose to pursue their objectives and conduct operations in sprawling towns and cities which will already have experienced endemic lawlessness and high levels of violence.”
“Conflict and crises will continue to trigger the displacement of large numbers of people, mainly into proximate regions, which may themselves be at risk of instability. Recent conflicts have also demonstrated the potential for sudden movements of people over longer distances, with the potential for related shocks and knock-on effects. This instability is likely to fuel extremist politics in some societies, possibly based on a beleaguered middle class, which may result in resurgent nationalism and authoritarianism.”
Basically, almost everything I’ve been saying for years is in this paper, more or less.
There’s also a 2010 edition I haven’t read yet.
Have fun with it.