A new paper by the TaxPayers’ Alliance sets out the economic landscape in which the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will make its latest interest rate decision, and makes the case for not raising borrowing or spending despite superficially alluring low interest rates.
- EVEN if interest rates remain at their historically low level of 0.25 per cent, then the national debt is projected to reach 234 per cent of GDP in 2066-67.
- However, it is very likely that rates will go up soon, and when they do, the national debt as a percentage of GDP is also projected to rise.
- By 2066-67, any increase in interest rates will mean a significant increase in the national debt as a percentage of GDP.
That’s going by official numbers, which are …wrong.
Who do we owe this fucking money?
Can’t we just break their kneecaps with a naval fleet?
Those were the days.
They’re being Pollyanna, guys.
The UK’s fiscal situation is still very fragile :
- The UK’s national debt currently stands at £1.7 trillion.
- This is equivalent to 89.3 per cent of GDP.
- When compared internationally, the UK has the eighth highest national debt in the EU and the fifth highest in the OECD.
- In the financial year ending March 2017, the UK’s national debt increased by £68.1 billion.
- This is the equivalent of £5.7 billion a month and £186 million a day.
- The UK government spends £48.4 billion each year on debt interest payments, more than it spends on the police transport combined.
Someone’s gonna have to work that off.
Can you guess who?
The cocky liberal arts champagne socialists who think they’re too good to work a real job. That’s who.
It’s going to be precious once they figure this out.
Don’t interrupt them as New New Left eats New Left. Just let them slowly clock what’s actually been going on this entire time. When the police lose their pensions will be interesting. Teachers?
The Neo-Nazis will also fail, the solution to socialism’s collapse is not more sodding socialism.
Santa didn’t bring them toys, they gotta make toys too.
Socialists are confidence tricksters on a national scale.
Negative effects to UK economy
In addition to higher debt interest payments and a bigger national debt, there are other serious negative effects of increased borrowing that are not currently part of the debate:
(i) The UK has a floating exchange rate and so has a small fiscal multiplier. So if capital does not come from other parts of the UK capital market, it must come from other economies. This results in the real exchange rate rising. This has a negative impact on the competitiveness of UK exports.
(ii) Index-linked gilts form approximately 25 per cent of the UK’s gilt portfolio, a high percentage compared to other highly developed economies. As a result of the relatively high proportion of index-linked gilts, the UK’s level of debt is particularly susceptible to increases in inflation. Therefore, the MPC has a further incentive to consider a moderate increase in interest rates in order to curb inflation.
(iii) The UK pays interest on the bonds which it issues in the form of yields. If the national debt increases then these yields will have to increase in order to attract investors
(iv). Very high national debt can have a negative impact on economic growth. For example, borrowing can crowd out other investment as investors loan money to the government, rather than to the private sector. Nations typically see growth slow when their debt levels reach 90 percent of GDP, with the median growth rate falling by 1 percent and average growth falling by even more.
Good news – we can’t take more immigrants.
Bad news – we can’t take the current population.