Viral replication maths

aka why it will get worse (80% of deaths will be in the last 2 weeks or so of this thing, no hospital – or morgue – can handle a million deaths inside a month).

Here’s a math puzzle for you. Take a pond. Put a lily pad on it. The lily pad doubles every day. It takes 30 days for the point to be completely covered. On which day is the pond 50% covered? A lot of people say 15. They don’t even think about it. It’s easier when its written out, but say that puzzle to someone verbally. It tricks more people. The answer is day 29.

That’s what pandemic means.

World Wide Population: 7,636,905,300

Projected Number Of Infected: 70%

Fatality Rate: 3.4%

Dead: 181,758,346

The guys wanting a zombie apocalypse never reckoned they’d be a zombie.

Y’all wonder why I hate the Chinese.

Borrowing the maths from a random youtuber again:

Only 38 US deaths means nothing. We’re on GENERATION 20 of this fucking mess. We have 13 to go. We have 10 generations before this gets out of hand, then 21 days after that before the butcher’s bill comes do. Just remember, there is about a 21 day delay before we know when everyone lives, or everyone dies.

Population of America: 329,400,291

Projected Infected: 80%

Death Rate: 2.1%

Total Dead: 5,533,924

And 80% of those deaths will happen in a 2 week period.

Suddenly Billy Bob in the woods doesn’t look so stupid.

BTW, those are the regional projections, not world projections. We are more interconnected then the rest of the world, so we get more infected, but we have better health care, so less people die. Still… 4.4 million people are going to die in a month.Not… a month from now. But in a month. Inside of 4 weeks, 4.4 million people are going to drop dead. About 1 million a week. Tell me, you think the system can handle 1 million people dying a week? For a month? Well… that’s the numbers. Thats the projections. THAT IS WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT.

I find no fault with his (his?) maths.

Now, we lock down america, we shut down everything for the next two months, we start up Live vaccines for the healthiest 1/3rd of americans,

but live shedding, so no

we’ll keep it under a million total. We drag our feat, we slow down at all… well… I’m sorry, but we’re just delaying things. The 80% will get infected, sooner or later.

not if they quarantine

2.1% will die on average and we have no means of stopping it. Oh.

When will this month happen?

In 35 to 52 days. If nothing changes. Oh yes, Inflection points. The virus might mutate and strangle itself… blah blah blah blah. Dude, bring up any argument you want and I’ll shoot it down. Sorry. I’ve been trying to figure out how to stop this for a month and… it’s too late. We can only slow it down now. Try and soften the blow, but the blow is going. to land. 5 million dead…. 500,000 dead…. 50,000 dead… the difference of 1 week’s time between them. If we stopped this 2 weeks ago, we could have divided the deaths by a hundred. But… wooda cooda shooda So. You got your three numbers. Tell me where I am wrong.

Glad I’m not in London.

Edit: Supposedly a Chang Xi (very American name) is responsible for this super-virus (big-brained Asians strike again) by giving CV a protein from herpes called orf10. So this could be even worse. Can we drop the idea that Asians are smart now? This is what happens when you give rice farmer DNA access to white science.

2 responses to “Viral replication maths

1. Be civil. 2. Be logical or fair. 3. Do not bore me.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s