Video: Crash-causing debt

A jubilee is a bailout of bad investors, fuck ’em. Everyone has a sob story, equal outcomes is still cancer.

Screw the stupid, not responsible. They deserve to suffer.

Greedy people suffering poverty is FAIR. There’s deserving poor. Social mobility must be allowed to also go down to ever recover the society. Middle-class people who ‘resent’ slipping down shouldn’t have bought cliche Hermes belts and tacky Gucci slippers.

Meritocracy – the greedy fools lose their shorts. And if they were so smart, they’d be fine with slipping down knowing it wasn’t just luck and they could make it back, right?

The average cannot bail out low IQ and it shouldn’t have to.

Someone’s labour would be devalued. That’s slavery. Pay the piper.

I wanna buy a sportscar. I don’t. Why? First, I’m not a man so there’s no phallic inferiority complex going on but generally, it’s because I am not a thief. I refuse to get into debt dishonestly. Old-fashioned I know. It just seems like a bad idea. Jeremiah 17:11.

Likewise, by contrast I know people, lots of people otherwise sane, who are running up huge allowance credit cards assuming their parents will ‘help’ them buy a house to get grandkids or that they’ll definitely get their dream job and promotion. Lumping in the reckless with the responsible will breed resentment. Idiots only learn the hard way.

Every time they see me not doing this, struggling like young people are supposed to, they’re really smug about their ‘cunning plan’.

It’s literally most people under 30 I’ve ever met. EVER.

Every country, every occupation, every industry, every class bracket, every income level.

EVAAAAAAAAH. Consider the scope of that. People triple their age do it too. It’s the New Normal.

They all have the same fucking ‘genius’. You cannot talk them out of it.

They’re “not like other investors” TM. Every one of them is that arrogant.

It’s like fiscal Jesus is gonna rapture them out of debt, it’s creeping me out.

Magical thinking in the worst possible place. It’s impossible at this point, post-70-80s.

At this point I’m scared to bring it up. They attack like hyenas if you suggest the Government isn’t omnipotent like God and can’t spare you the Hell of responsibility for your own credit card purchases on shoes, be they Louboutins (painful) or Nikes (break).

They vote like rich celebrity assholes because they think they’ll be bailed out like rich celebrity assholes.

This cannot end pleasantly for them. They must learn the short term game ends in loss, long-term.

You have to let them fail now. Yes, even the Boomers. You’re WAY too old to claim ignorance.

When you’ve been doing the same infantile bullshit for over half a CENTURY, it isn’t really a ‘mistake’.

I take my lumps now and push ahead with less so I don’t have to do it old, ill and with less ability to recover. That’s natural law. You can’t circumvent another person who pissed their life away doing the easy thing every time. There’s no rewind button to circumvent those consequences of immoral choice. You can’t reverse decades of selfish stupidity bearing rotten fruit. You had your fun, for years. You spent while others saved. It’s winter now, you starve.

There aren’t enough beach-houses to go around. What everyone on the planet feels entitled to, it’s impossible to dole out equally.

You cannot cover arse for shitty time preference. It leaves someone else out in the cold.

I’m tired of the musical chairs dance. Yet I get it. I truly do.

They took the ending of Fight Club a little too literally. Wiping the slate won’t bring down the high IQ or raise the low IQ, it won’t make the fat thin and the thin less vegan, it won’t end Third World wars and it won’t be a magical blowjob machine of financial utopia. It doesn’t raise the dead who voted in the race and immigration melting pot shit so we can kick ’em (although the Cromwell treatment is on the table). It’s just nothingness.

Most of the Millennial “socialists” are like (90+%) actually of the Cloward-Piven let-it-burn motherfuckers school.

If you actually talked to them. “What if socialism fails and the economy collapses?”

They’re HAPPY about it, it’s spiteful on purpose. That’s a feature, NOT a bug.

If ‘paying dues’ gets you screwed. All Gen Y/Z heard from the conceited Boomers was, “you gotta pay your dues, you gotta pay your dues, you gotta pay your dues” well now we’re the major voting bloc it’s “you first”.

We’re not letting you take it with you. This is across left/right, we all agree.

It’s the last-ditch attempt to cut out the cancer of the corrupt.

They made us poor, …let’s return the favour.

Hey, the hippies loved to lecture us on the Golden Rule.

How do you hurt a rich person Trading Places logic.

Fix it or we break it even more.

Guardian: It’s over, the good times are gone

Give this one traffic.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

Investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel, economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland have warned.

If they say twenty, they mean at least double.

Stock markets have already come under severe pressure in 2016, with the FTSE 100 down more than 5% in its worst start since 2000. In the US, the Dow Jones industrial average has made its poorest ever start to a year.

The Chinese know something we don’t. Since the yuan got reserve status, they’ve been cashing out their chips… into our chips.

RBS is not the only negative voice at the moment. Analysts at JP Morgan have advised clients to sell stocks on any bounce.

Any.

10 warning signs of a market crash in 2015

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11322623/Ten-warning-signs-of-a-market-crash-in-2015.html

The FTSE 100 slid on the first day of trading in 2015. Here are 10 warning signs that the markets may drop further.

Vix fear gauge

For five years, investor fear of risk has been drugged into somnolence by repeated injections of quantitative easing. The lack of fear has led to a world where price and risk have become estranged. As credit conditions are tightened in the US and China, the law of unintended consequences will hold sway in 2015 as investors wake up. The Vix, the so-called “fear index” that measures volatility, spiked to 18.4 on Friday, above the average of 14.5 recorded last year.

Rising US Treasury yields

With the Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, and the latest QE3 bond-buying programme ending in October last year, credit markets are expecting a poor year for US Treasuries. The yield on two-year US Treasuries has more than doubled from 0.31pc to 0.74pc since October.

Credit insurance

Along with the increased US Treasury yields, the cost of insuring against corporate credits going bad is also going up. The cost of insuring investment grade US corporate credit against default has become 20pc more expensive, rising from lows of 55 to 66 since July, according to Markit.

Rising US credit risk

The wider credit market is also flashing warning signs. The TED spread, as reported by Bloomberg, is the difference between the rate US banks are willing to lend to each other and the Federal Reserve rate, which is seen as risk free. The TED spread is taken as the perceived credit risk in the general economy, and increased 9pc in December to its highest level since the end of 2013.

Rising UK bank risk

In the UK, a key measure of risk in the London banking sector is the difference between the London interbank offered rate (Libor) and the overnight indexed swap (OIS) rate, also called the Libor-OIS spread. This shows the difference between the rate at which London banks are willing to lend to each other and the Federal Reserve rate which is seen as risk free. On Friday, the Libor-OIS spread reached its highest level since October 2012.

Interest rate shock

Interest rates have been held at emergency lows in the UK and US for around five years. The US is expected to move first, with rates starting to rise from the current 0-0.25pc around the middle of the year. Investors have already starting buying dollars in anticipation of a strengthening US currency, with the pound falling 10pc against the dollar since July to hit 1.538 on Friday. UK interest rate rises are expected by the end of the year.

Bull market third longest on record

The UK stock market is in its 70th month of a bull market, which began in March 2009. There are only two other occasions in history when the market has risen for longer. One is the period leading up to the great crash in 1929 and the other before the bursting of the dotcom bubble in the early 2000s.

UK markets have been a beneficiary of the huge balance sheet expansion in the US. US monetary base, a measure of notes and coins in circulation plus reserves held at the central bank, has more than quadrupled from around $800m to more than $4 trillion since 2008. The stock market has been a direct beneficiary of this money and will struggle now that QE3 has ended.

Overvalued US market

In the US, Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio – or Shiller CAPE – for the S&P 500 is currently at 27.2, some 64pc above the historic average of 16.6. On only three occasions since 1882 has it been higher – in 1929, 2000 and 2007.

Commodity collapse

Commodity markets have been the lead indicators for a global slowdown, as the prices for oil and iron ore more than halved in value last year. The Bloomberg Global Commodity index, which tracks the prices of 22 commodity prices around the world, fell to fresh five-year lows on Friday at 104.17.

Professional investors exit

Professional investors are already making for the exit. The Bloomberg smart money flow index tracks the market movements at the end of the trading day on the Dow Jones, when professional investors tend to make their move. The index showed heavy buying activity from 2009 onwards as professional investors followed central banks’ money into the markets, achieving record gains during the past five years. That trend was reversed from the beginning of 2014 and the smart money is now making for the exit, as the S&P 500 carries on rising to new record highs.

The structure of global capital markets is such that the $68 trillion equity market is riskier and sits on top of a credit market worth more than $100 trillion. As yields have fallen in the credit markets, the excess profits have flowed up to equity, in turn lifting stock markets to record highs.

The reversal of that trend, one of increased risk and rising credit yields will reduce returns to equity and send shockwaves through stock markets. The warning signs are not all flashing red just yet but investors would do well to head these indicators that suggest caution and prepare their portfolio before the crowd flocks to the exit.

Oh no, what a shame…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11322680/Europes-bond-yields-fall-to-lowest-since-the-Black-Death.html

….

Nothing like this has been seen in European history since the 14th century, after the depletion of silver mines set off a slow monetary contraction, followed by Edward III’s default on debts to Italian banks and the Black Death soon after, compounding a deflationary collapse.

“What we are seeing is the ‘Japanification’ trade,” said Andrew Roberts, credit chief at RBS. “The eurozone is sinking into corrosive deflation and it is too late to stop. We think the inflation rate in December may already have been negative. The ECB are in trouble, and they know it.”…

MGTOW have the right idea.

David Cameron: when the economy goes, I didn’t do it

http://uk.businessinsider.com/cameron-dont-blame-me-if-the-economy-crashes–its-everyone-elses-fault-2014-11

He’s partially correct. It’s mostly Labour’s terms (£££) and the EU.

As I met world leaders at the G20 in Brisbane, the problems were plain to see. The eurozone is teetering on the brink of a possible third recession, with high unemployment, falling growth and the real risk of falling prices too. Emerging markets, which were the driver of growth in the early stages of the recovery, are now slowing down. Despite the progress in Bali, global trade talks have stalled while the epidemic of Ebola, conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s illegal actions in Ukraine are all adding a dangerous backdrop of instability and uncertainty.

In our interconnected world, wider problems in the global economy pose a real risk to our recovery at home. We are already seeing that, with the impact of the eurozone slowdown on our manufacturing and our exports.

We cannot insulate ourselves completely, but we must do all we can to protect ourselves from a global downturn.

He’s trying to get re-elected, but at least he knows how fucked we are.
Rising interest rates?