S&P bubble brain

Just buy the S&P bro! It’s easy, bro! DUDE it’s free money.
This is what happens when idiots sing from the same hymn sheet.

The Future of Money and How to Use It

Marvel at this stupidity:
Is your steak dinner with your girlfriend worth a full share of the S&P 500? Do you have 100 shares of S&P 500 in your checking account? 1,000 shares? 10,000 shares? Does this make sense if you know the amount of dollars printed is only going to go up? So on and so forth.”

live on ramen in a shack to buy S&P, bro!

what could possibly go wrong?
and of all the things to buy, all-time high, high-risk and public (i.e. dumb money) equity?
Not even land or anything productive.
Don’t trust banks? Trust CEOs!
Tell Enron.

“These are very big questions.”
buy the dip bro is hardly deep advice, it’s shallow as a kiddy pool
“Even if you want to be conservative,”
every damn day

“instead of saying “I need 2 years of cash in my hand” ask yourself “how many of my investments are already up 100%, 200% or even 300%?”
Bubble brain. Normalcy bias.

Therefore, even if you needed to sell some of them for cash to pay for something, you’d unlikely lock in a loss.”

muh stocks only go up

Ok Boomer. Actually, that’s not fair, Boomers remember ’29.

This guy reads like pure Millennial, thinking the banks actually fixed everything in ’08.

These rationalizations show dumb people can earn lots of money. The low IQ can have high income but only temporarily.

“This will prevent you from being one of those strange people who have 5-10 years of cash earning 0% for long periods of time. “
To buy the crash, idjit.
Strange like prepping for martial law and riots strange?
Yeah, those CRAZIES.
How long did the Great Depression last, again?

“With the knowledge that money printing will occur no matter what,”
wrong

“every single cent after this needs to go straight into productive assets. Doesn’t matter what it is, anything that generates returns above 0% is good enough
men can astound me with their stupidity

buy anything bro, anything really
-If you knew the returns, you’d be running the company?

“Well bonds are at nearly zero, interest on savings accounts are zero and more money is being printed! So this means if the money supply goes up by more than 1% or so, you’re losing money on that bond “investment” (Ie. your purchasing power went down).”
base money is not broad money
only if it enters broad money, idjit
which historically, it never did

NEVAAAAAAA* (in America, but they tried multiple times)
instead it inflated asset bubbles, especially…… STOCK

congratulations, you’re doing what the Fed expects you to do

cuntmuffins, absolute corporate CEO cockgobblers

*that’s why they want UBI, fed coin, direct gibs, like IV drug use straight to broad money (the People) skipping over base (banks)

fucking DUUUUUUUUH

but buy stawks bro

“For fun we’ll stick with the above being correct. All we need to agree on is that the government is going to be forced to print.”
investors who don’t understand finance, huh?
banks forced to print, private entities seeking to escape deflation to keep extending lines of credit and paying negative interest in effect (stated inflation v actual spending and purchasing power)
bloody hell, how do you NOT know this? I’m in my twenties still wtf I’m barely trying and never shilled an e-book my entire life

“If we can agree on that, it means that the next 4 years will see more inequality. The rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer either though inflation or through lack of asset ownership.”
Parroting Marxist theory, STFU.
The rich don’t get richer, the nominal value of money goes up because the fiat currency goes DOWN (devaluation)
The poor don’t get poorer, their wages stagnate and they get fired for foreign labour or so their employer can plead poverty. The poor still have flat screen TVs and too much house, calm down Dorothy. When most Americans are skinny, maybe.

Also, assets? At this, a time of record corporate debt?
Who’s holding the bag, Barney?

Remember: ITS OK TO CRY.

“Even if prices stay the same (for all goods) if the cost of assets (homes, education, etc.) all go up… the only winners are the rich.”
Buying at all-time high prices, a liability on credit is a ‘win’? Locked in for maybe 30 YEARS?
A WIN? Really?
Because nothing can change personally or financially in three decades?
My God, the old geezers were right, we DO need a good war. Cull the feeble-minded, at least.

“With the main point out of the way, we can then move to secondary effects… which is that people will not be happy about it.”
Brilliant, Jenkins!
“The average person is not going to be okay with a massively increasing divide between the rich and poor.”
Paper valuations are not real money.
Repeat after me.
Paper valuations are not real money.

Bezos doesn’t have billions in cash sitting in a bank vault.
This is not a Robin Hood cartoon.

More likely, they’ll vote for higher taxes when they’re already going to need to pay for their own ‘stimulus’ check money with those already. This will be on the employer, who will fire people and be blamed for paying less in wages, fewer promotions etc.

“There are two ways to transfer that wealth through 1) taxation or 2) through a wealth transfer. Since wealth transfers are rarely seen as successful, an increase in taxes is more likely.”
sweet sweet summer child
let me tell you about this one time, in Cyprus….
or the many times ‘brokers’ have had mysterious ‘crashes’ only when their AIs sensed too many auto-sells by the proles

“Our best guess at this point would be an increase in property taxes since it is the most difficult to avoid.”
Regulation increases house prices. No new builds, no increase supply, prices go up. Prices go up, people won’t move. Immigration means people remain in ‘safe’ areas, ever-rarer. Prices go up more. Moral of the story: estate agents are traitorous scum.
CA wants 10 year backdated tax, right? You can never leave.
And the morons with a crypto wallet think they’ll be allowed to leave the country. What is your passport? Draft card.
If they’re smarter, and Marxists can be devious, they’ll tax entire professions e.g. Wall St. Suck it up, buttercup.
or they’ll tax by operation e.g. cashing out trades, state tax.
Banning cash would land-lock us from leaving the country, no valid suitcase full of money. No crypto either. Metal detectors aren’t really there for weapons. Why scan your hands?

“Other ideas include: 1) a change in tax on dividend income,”
No they’d go full portfolio over key amounts, silly. It’s an asset right? Why slaughter the little piggy when the fat big one is right there? And then it doesn’t matter where you move it. Where will you go? China?!!

Think of a massive remittance tax too. No leaving the country. I’d support that one, keep monies nationally. Don’t let immigrants fleece us. It punishes r only.

“2) a change in tax on stock issuance and 3) a change in tax on income.”
That will need to go down to incentivise people to work, was already too high. They need new businesses, a risk.

Generally speaking, the issue going forward won’t be an income issue.”
That is the most retarded thing I have heard all year.

People are dying, Kim! People are homeless!

“It will be an asset issue.”
Blow your bubble.

“This means that you have to find a way to tax people with a lot of wealth not people who are earning a lot of income.”
Portfolio, prick. Taxing institutions like Blackrock would be hugely popular.

“By way of example the person who is worth $10M today and makes $100K a year as a junior college professor is the person you have to tax, not the person who is worth $250K and earns $300K a year.”
{laughs in experience of Marxists}
Socialists are still Marxists, they’re brutal. They leave no money on the table and keep stealing.
Income encourages slave wages. Gov wants monetary velocity and GDP.
Dead money in a pension fund does nothing, expect a strong rinse.

“PS if you’ve got an answer to a divide in rich and poor based on assets we’d love to hear it.”
Extreme luxury tax too e.g. champagne at 99% tax.
Yachts and other shit normal people don’t need. That was the theory behind VAT.

“For now, it’s best to focus on the main items up front. Keeping your “value” out of cash and in items that will be used 3-4 years from now.”
Keep scurrying like you knew this would happen, man.
You can also predict 4 years into the future. Tell me, do you speak Mandarin Chinese?

“Be it high tech stocks or various scarce assets.”

tech
scarce
pick ONE
also, ‘high tech’? how is Netflix ‘high tech’? Piratebay has been streaming for years.
just buy FANG bro

“After a few years, we should see an increase in the proverbial divide “haves and have nots”.”
No there are people spending their money on stupid shit on the illusion their 401k is fine and people who know better buying shit they can actually use.
Two groups. Brava.

“At that point it would be wise to find ways to hold valuable assets that are difficult to tax (a good example would be rare art).”
of all the things you name, a tax ponzi for literal billionaires
like they couldn’t just change the law tomorrow?
I think a direct (maybe IRS) tax on Patreon funds will come in, by viewing it as income – because it is. Like a pre-screen income tax. Tax the hipsters drawing woke potato people, tax them ALL….

I guarantee a lot of these ‘writers’ and dudebro BTD (buy the dip) Youtubers will disappear when this comes crashing down. Nothing to say, nothing to repeat. They’re mentally empty and weak.

Stocks don’t go ‘on sale’

This is the same rationalization given to stupid women buying five grand Gucci.

They’ll magically save for your retirement, because the central bankers would allow proles to get into this system.
You can sit on your backside like a hippy Boomer in the 60s because the economy has magical productivity, this is possible. You can work four hours a week and survive financially. It’s easy money! This time it’s different! Online jobs can never be outsourced!
Fairytales are stupid stories for kids!

A fool and his money.

The big fish are even telling you to hold in case of a crash(1) because Muh Markets always recover!

They don’t go to zero. Companies never go bankrupt. That has never happened in the history of America.

 

I mean, consider the wording. Worthless things that need to be cleared as stock go on sale.

They’re hinting in the wording.

I hope as many idiots are financially ruined as possible but that doesn’t include my readership so.

Actively encourage every leftie you know to buy in now. Apple, Tesla, the works!

100% in the stock market is not diversification. 401k, bonds, ETFs – all stock-bound. Did you at least buy modern art too? That is tangible.
Where do the people exist to buy this?

Kid’s culture is stupid!

Buy no hot potato.

internet con artists:

1 – Stocks won’t crash but IF they did, keep buying while I’m definitely not selling, no Siree.

Capitalist kitty

https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/08/01/a-cat-outperformed-pro-stock-pickers-heres-what-th.aspx

Worse than buying bonds before a collapse in the class, worse than buying French gilts, worse than buying single company stock, worse than falling for the siren song of “options” over cash, worse than an actor agreeing to be paid in net profits, is buying something calling itself a “currency” backed by precisely zero humans’ labour.

Those tulips smell lovely.

And to this day, nobody knows who invented it. You’re legally barred from purchasing land, the only real investment, with it. Every idiot you know is acting like 2005 with house prices, laughing at you for not buying it. If there’s one thing that motivates your investment strategy, it should be the emotions of the idiots who read one blog post or ‘trust’ a public adviser, reliant on clickbait.

Still, there is one group stupider. (I don’t care if that counts as a word, don’t @ me).

The EU-China land bridge builders. Bridges work both ways? You’d have to be especially thick to build a LAND BRIDGE during a time that a previously wealthy continent is experiencing demographic decline and being overtaken with African (and low-quality Asian) marauding rapists and bandits. You have more money than us and more schoolgirls. Where will they go, if there’s a land bridge? For their sake, I hope the debt falls through prior to completion. It probably will.

Watching the financial news is like reading Emperor’s New Clothes. You can’t see it, you can’t touch it, you pay for it and just – trust us, it’s there.

Currencies are backed by citizens, specifically their sweat.

I’m starting to see a connection between box office records and the economy. If anyone wants to follow that thread, I say go for it.

Penny stocks are a scam

I rarely give financial advice. You know this.

There’s a thing going round the desperate about Amazon penny stocks, don’t do it.

Please.

I don’t want to see any of my readers scammed.

Normally, I’d turn a blind eye but they trust Amazon for some reason and it’s intended to snag people who think they’re too smart to buy Apple. Problem is, you have no friends in this industry. I do.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/12784673/1/wolf-wall-street-exposes-danger-penny-stocks-0.html

I would rather buy seeds.

This was literally in Wolf of Wall Street as a massive con.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14227207/1/why-short-amazon-a-possible-bipartisan-antitrust-threat-says-doug-kass.html

They’re lying to you.

I say this because I care.

With any stock tips, it’s 99% BS or 1% illegal.

Guardian: It’s over, the good times are gone

Give this one traffic.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

Investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel, economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland have warned.

If they say twenty, they mean at least double.

Stock markets have already come under severe pressure in 2016, with the FTSE 100 down more than 5% in its worst start since 2000. In the US, the Dow Jones industrial average has made its poorest ever start to a year.

The Chinese know something we don’t. Since the yuan got reserve status, they’ve been cashing out their chips… into our chips.

RBS is not the only negative voice at the moment. Analysts at JP Morgan have advised clients to sell stocks on any bounce.

Any.

The preppers’ portfolio for doom and gloom

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/11685592/The-table-that-shows-you-should-always-hold-gold.html

I like this idea. Low-risk strategies are the way to go if you’re edging retirement and can’t risk high exposure.

Diversification, as a strategy, is all but dead, in that everything is both dangerous and correlated.

Thanks, bailouts.

As a result of this bleak world view, Personal Assets offers a glimpse as to how a portfolio might be constructed to best weather the ultimate in uncertainty.

If inflation resurfaces with a vengeance, 10pc of the portfolio is in gold and 20pc in UK and US index-linked government bonds.

Don’t trust gilts.
Governments can default, hello Greece.

If the menace is deflation, there’s a 30pc cash pile. If shares crash there is comfort in a current exposure to global equities of only 40pc – plus the fact that the stocks held are super-quality defensives such as Nestlé and Coca-Cola.

ah, blue chips
but their nominal value must be part of the overvaluation trend? when did they buy?

If the stock market tanks on a truly stunning scale, there’s the £170m cash hoard with which to go buying.

…such a holding within a portfolio otherwise made up of British shares and bonds in a 60:40 split would have affected returns over the past four decades.

The research was undertaken by gold investor service BullionVault – so not disinterested – and puts a price on owning gold in terms of its hedging benefits on one hand and loss of long-term returns on the other.

A 10pc holding, for example, would have roughly halved portfolio losses in the worst year of the past 40. The price paid would have been the reduction, by almost two percentage points, in the average annual growth over a five-year period….

I have heard good things about Bullion Vault.

Gold is the only valuable currency. No tarnish, low chemical reactivity, hard to fake.

Forbes: Are Stocks heading for a Crash?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/08/27/are-stocks-heading-for-a-crash-this-fall/

At the start of last month, I published a piece in which I showed twenty-three charts that I believe prove that the U.S. stock market is experiencing a classic speculative bubble that will end in a crash or severe bear market….

As we head into the fall – a historically weak season for stocks – it is a good time to reiterate the need for caution as stocks trade near all-time highs. Some of history’s worst stock market crashes, including the crash of 1929, 1987, and 2008, occurred in September and October after rallying in the spring or summer. I must emphasize that I am not actually predicting a crash this fall (thought it certainly could happen), but rather discussing the risks and potential sell-off catalysts to be aware of…..

Interesting read.

Double dip recession, anyone?

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9271191/back-to-the-brink/

This blatant rigging of western equity markets has gone on for several years, with stocks soaring despite weak economic fundamentals. While everyone in financial circles knows this, to say as much out loud is to guarantee pariah status — and I should know. But eyebrows are now being publicly raised by genuine insiders, with the Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements, an umbrella organisation for the world’s leading central banks, warning of ‘euphoric’ equity valuations. ‘It is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally,’ it argued in its annual report published earlier this month.

Systemic global risks today may be greater than before the Lehman crisis, the BIS warns, as debts have risen. Across the developed world, the average combined public and private debt ratio is at 275 per cent of GDP, compared with 250 per cent in 2007. And no less than two fifths of new syndicated loans are now sold to dodgy ‘sub-prime’ borrowers, the BIS adds — above the pre–Lehman high.

trans. In popping one small balloon, we’ve blown up lots of big ones.

… It’s undeniable, for those willing to look, that numerous technical stock-market indicators are now flashing red. For one thing, the S&P500 sports an average cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of 25.6, according to Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University. That’s way above the historic average of 16.5, suggesting prices are unsustainably high.

…Trading volumes, meanwhile, are wafer thin, with just 1.8 billion shares trading daily within the S&P500 over recent months — that’s a six-year low. High valuations and low volumes amount to classic crash conditions. Yet still the rally continues — because investors can’t quite bring themselves to believe that the Fed will fully implement the planned end of QE in October as planned, or raise interest rates from ultra-low levels any time soon.

Western share prices generally have ballooned amid slow profit growth and still deep-rooted concerns about where the world economy is actually going. As such, global equities valuations are detached from reality and propped up by printed money.

…‘I would be extremely wary of stock markets right now,’ says Professor Michael Dempster, co-founder of the Centre for Financial Research at Cambridge University. ‘The last crisis was caused by cheap money and it’s happening again via QE, which is very, very worrying. QE started as a way of priming the pump, but no one knows how to turn it off without causing financial havoc.’

Admati points also to the failure of policy-makers [DS: change you can believe in!] to reform the ‘too big to fail’ western banks at the heart of the worst economic collapse in almost 80 years. ‘Our financial system remains bloated, inefficient and reckless,’ she says. ‘It endangers innocent citizens unnecessarily and distorts the economy to benefit the few. This recklessness isn’t only tolerated but, perversely, encouraged and rewarded by flawed policies and ineffective regulation.’

Admati pillories the official attempts to fix our banking system. ‘Supposed tough reforms are just tweaks to the previous rules that failed spectacularly, maintaining key flaws,’ she says.

‘Chinese walls don’t work,’ [DS: have you seen their debts over GDP? says Dempster. ‘Glass-Steagall should never have been taken down,’ he argues, referring to US legislation that, between 1933 and 1997, kept such activities in separate companies, insulating taxpayer-backed deposits from risky investments. ‘It was the reason we had a reasonably stable banking system for almost 70 years.’

…In March, the International Monetary Fund admitted such banks still receive annual implicit subsidies of $590 billion, with creditors judging that state bailouts will indeed be forthcomingwhen reckless, highly leveraged investments go wrong. This flies in the face of political rhetoric that the problem is solved and taxpayers will never again have to bail out bonus-fuelled traders.

This autumn, as the end of Fed ‘tapering’ and rising interest rates loom larger, overvalued western stock markets will come under intense pressure. Our largely unreformed, debt-soaked, loss-hiding banks mean a sharp asset price correction could spark a systemic crisis, involving not only the ‘advanced’ world but the large emerging markets, too. I don’t want it to happen, but there’s a good chance it might.

Regime uncertainty of elections need to be accounted, inc. the September Scotland referendum.

 

High earners better detect economic bubbles

That in itself is a type of intelligence though. A pattern occurs to the subconscious way before conscious awareness. And pattern recognition has been argued as vital to the mind.

http://medicalxpress.com/news/2014-07-high-earners-stock-game-brain.html

“At some point during the 50 trading periods of each session, a price bubble would invariably form and crash. The scientists had suspected that crowd cognition would result in some , though they had not expected it to happen every time.

What surprised the scientists even more were the distinctive brain activity patterns that emerged among the low earners and high earners.

Traders who bought more aggressively based on activity in one brain region, the nucleus accumbens, earned less.

In contrast, the high earners seemed to ignore nucleus accumbens activity in favor of the anterior insular cortex, a brain area active during bodily discomfort and unpleasant emotional states. [I’d bet money they were called pessimists by the idiots]

Just before a bubble peaked – as their brain scans were revealing an increased activity in the anterior insula – the high earners would begin to sell their shares.

The scientists believe the high earners’ brain activity may represent a neural early warning signal of an impending crash.

“It’s notoriously hard to identify bubbles and predict crashes by tracking price fluctuations alone,” said Colin Camerer, a behavioral economist at Caltech and the study’s other senior author. “This experimental method is ideal for understanding the neuropsychology of bubble formation, because we can control the fundamental values and use both prices and brain activity to figure out why bubbles form and crash.”

The model may also shed light on other contexts in which groups – and individuals – overvalue something, Montague said.

“This neurobehavioral metric could be used to help quantify situations in which people place excessive value on poor choices, such as drug addiction, compulsive gambling, or overeating,” he said. [promiscuity, suicidal politics]

Montague, who also directs the Virginia Tech Carilion Research Institute’s Computational Psychiatry Unit, plans to explore the promise of mindfulness training in moderating one’s own brain activity, as well as research into real-world applications, including stock markets.

“The brain can provide us with valuable information about what someone may be perceiving about the market and what they’re likely to do next,” Montague said. “That gut feeling the high earners had? It was all in their heads.””